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| PHOTO BY JEFF SCHOOLS CMSB MEDIA/MR SPARKY |
I’ve seen this play before, and it has a nightmarish ending.
August 31, 1990. The Boston Red Sox were looking to solidify a not so great bullpen. The Blue Jays had top to bottom, one of the best staffs in baseball and trailed the Sox by 6 games. Lou Gorman decided it was time to pull off the now infamous deal with the Houston Astros, Red Sox 3B prospect Jeff Bagwell for middle reliever Larry Andersen.
Ever wonder what the Red Sox did get out of Larry Andersen? Well, how about 11 games, 1 save and the loss of the 6 game lead over Toronto, not all Andersen’s fault. While the Red Sox ultimately won the division, they were clean swept out of the ALCS by the Oakland A’s, and Andersen lost game 1, the sole purpose for Andersen’s existence on the Red Sox.
How did Jeff Bagwell do in Houston? I think we all know how that went, minus the alleged steroid issues.
Let’s fast forward to 2010. The Boston Red Sox are 4 games out of a playoff spot looking to solidify a horrible middle relief situation. Downs is considered one of the best middle relievers in the game as we speak. He has a 4-5 record, allowed only 1 HR, 19 holds, a 1.05 WHIP and a 2.44 ERA in 46 games. Very good numbers for a middle relief guy no doubt. Better than what the Red Sox currently have (Delcarmen, Okajima..) , absolutely.
But is Scott Downs worth what will most assuredly be a steep asking price? Simple answer, NO…and here is why.
STATS – While I am not a Bill James-ian or a SABR Guru, I do know how to look at stats and draw conclusions out of what I see. When I look at Scott Downs performance this year, I see a troubling trend. Batters 1 – 4 in a lineup, any teams MEAT of the order, Downs is Plain Jane. He’s allowed 21 hits in 76 at bats for an opponent’s BA of .276. Downs feasts on the rest of the order allowing only 11 hits in 58 ABs with a batting average almost 100 points lower at .189.
CONTRACT – Just like Larry Andersen, Scott Downs is a free agent at the end of the season. Nuff said.
PRICE – Well here lies the rub!
Rumors and quotes from the Blue Jays organization have Scott Downs costing ANY team a pretty penny. For the Boston Red Sox, the cost will most likely be a Class A ballplayer combined with the likes of Jose Iglesias. Most reports have Toronto asking for Iglesias in any deal that would include Downs.
Folks trust me when I say, Jose Iglesias is as sure a thing as Jeff Bagwell was and ended up being 449 home runs later. Jose Iglasias will make you forget everyone in between Nomar Garciaparra and now. Hell, he might even make you forget Nomar too. Iglesias will not be the power threat any of the modern shortstop marvels are (Jeter, A-Rod, Nomar) but he just might provide you Ozzie Smith type D and hit .300 to boot.
Obviously 2010 has been a messed up year for Iglesias. He was injured on May 29th after being hit by a pitch on his right hand against New Britain. The injury has been described as a deep bone bruise, slight fracture and a sprain all in one. One thing for certain, Iglesias hasn’t seen the field, in a game, since that day.
What Iglesias has done since that day is be a great teammate, work on his English and work on his glove skills. Yep, you read it right, he has taken grounder after grounder and working solely on his glove skills, right out of the Dustin Pedroia taking grounders on his knees routine. I have personally seen him make glove passes to 2nd base during batting practice that would make Ozzie Smith blush..really…no exaggeration.
When healthy, Iglesias was a stellar defender, making spectacular play after spectacular play. Now he is 20 and was prone to the making the occasional play harder than it actually might be scenario, but none so egregious to make one think it will be a problem down the road. Every person that has seen Iglesias play knows this kid, given health and continued determination, will be a very special infielder for many years to come. What most scouts and people in the know had questions on Iglesias was his bat. Could the kid from Cuba come right into pro ball and adapt. Early projections have an emphatic yes. In all the many games I have watched Jose, he never look overmatched. He always had a good approach at the plate and always looked to work counts. All his batting approaches were right out of the Boston Red Sox school of batting. He stands at .306, 9 doubles, 3 triples and a .340 OBP. Now he does have 20 plus strike outs, but that sort of thing works its way out with more experience. BTW, the kid is only 20 and defected from Cuba to the US to play baseball. Just saying…
At the end of the day, I really want no part of Scott Downs, or any other middle relief help for any one of the Top 20 prospects in the Red Sox system. The cost is simply too high to pay for a wing and a prayer, Larry Andersen taught me that 20 years ago.
JEFF SCHOOLS
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